Does Kyoto have a fighting chance?

The short answer is probably not. There are a number of reasons why the fate of the Kyoto Protocol appears so bleak. One reason is that the United States was influential in shaping world policy at a recent convention, hosted by U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, that focused on limiting environmental policy.

The U.S., led by President George W. Bush, and some of the world's top polluters reconsidered policies that aimed to reduce greenhouse gases and instead chose to circumvent the Kyoto Protocol altogether. The mission of the meeting was to create new energy strategies like developing nuclear power and storing carbon dioxide emissions from coal plants. Bush also proposed a plan that would essentially turn the new pollution policies over to the next presidential administration.

America's decision to not ratify the Kyoto Protocol remains very controversial because 112 countries, including two of the world's fastest growing polluters, India and China, have now signed it. Initially, U.S. exclusion was based on the worst perpetrators not being a part of the protocol, but that claim can no longer be made since the U.S. now ranks among them.

The success of the Kyoto Protocol in regulating the environment is dependent on forward momentum and the guidance of a global leader. It's unlikely this will be achieved now.